Kevin Durant vs. LeBron James. Russell Westbrook vs. Dwayne Wade. Heat vs. Thunder. This is the matchup every basketball fan had been hoping for. The Heat are not only the most closely watched team in NBA history, setting ratings records seemingly every game, but they are likely the most despised as well. There will be few neutral fans in this series, as everyone who is not a Miami Heat fan will root strongly against them. The Thunder are the young guns trying to win a championship in a small market by building through the draft, something of a rarity is sports today. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden were all top 5 picks by the Thunder. In comparison, LeBron James and Chris Bosh came to Miami through free agency, joining Dwayne Wade. These teams are built around Big 3’s but it may be the role players on each side that decide this series. For the Thunder to win, Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison must be able to protect the rim and not allow Wade and James to repeatedly get to the foul line. Ibaka must also make the open looks on offense he is sure to get. If the Thunder can also get offensive contributions from Thabo Sefelosha and Derek Fisher they will be very tough to stop. The biggest problem with the Thunder offense, however, is that they rely heavily on outside jump shots. James Harden and Russell Westbrook get a big percentage of their points from the jump shot. If their shots aren’t falling, the Thunder can have trouble scoring offensively. Russell Westbrook is the X Factor for the Thunder. Westbrook needs to take a step back and allow Kevin Durant to be the scorer he is. If Westbrook can run the offense through Durant and score only when needed, the Thunder will win. However, Westbrook is known as a trigger-happy guard and has the ability to shoot the Thunder out of a game.
For the Heat, they will need contributions from their entire Big 3 to win this series. I expect Dwayne Wade to play closer to the level he did in games 4, 5, and 6 against the Pacers than the level he did in the Celtics series. He cannot average 5 points in the first half and expect to win this series as he did against the Celtics. Chris Bosh will need to hit his shots to bring Ibaka or Perkins out of the middle of the lane to open up room for LeBron and Wade to drive. However, this team runs off LeBron James and if they want to have any hope of winning, they cannot get a repeat performance of last years finals. James has played exceptional all year, but it will mean nothing if he cannot finish the deal. I truly believe this is the year James turns a corner and is finally able to get past the demons that have haunted him in the Finals both last year and in 2007. The Heat will need another superhuman performance from James to have any hope of beating the Thunder. James averaged 34 and 11 against the Celtics and still trailed by 1 point with 8 minutes left of game 7. For them to win they will need gargantuan efforts from both James and Wade as well as solid contributions from Bosh and one other role player (Chalmers, Battier, Miller, Haslem). In the end I cannot see the Miami Heat losing two years in a row in the Finals. I believe that Dwayne Wade conserved some of his energy against the Celtics and will come out with high energy against the Thunder. I also expect LeBron to continue his stellar play and get the Finals monkey off his back.
This is the matchup many people have been waiting for in the Eastern Conference. Although both teams come in with injuries it is still an intriguing matchup. The Miami Heat are without one of their Big 3, Chris Bosh, whose abdominal strain is likely to keep him out for the entire series. Bosh was often thought of as an afterthought throughout this season, but Miami’s struggles on offense have shown that he is more valuable to them than previously thought. Miami did show resilience against the Pacers without Bosh however, taking the Pacers best shot and returning a knockout blow delivered by Dwayne Wade and LeBron James. The Celtics come into the series with injuries of their own as Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have been slowed by knee and ankle injuries respectively. The biggest blow to the Celtics however, may have been the loss of Avery Bradley to a shoulder injury. Although Bradley came into the season as an afterthought, he became one of the leagues best perimeter defenders and played extremely well in the absence of Allen. Without Bradley, the task of guarding Dwayne Wade will likely fall to Ray Allen or even Mickael Pietrus off the bench. However, Allen has struggled on defense this postseason because of his ankle injury and Pietrus is no longer the lockdown defender he used to be. When discussing this matchup many people bring up the fact that the Celtics went 3-1 in the regular season against Miami. However, the Celtics went 4-0 against Miami last year in the regular season but Miami beat them in the Eastern Conference semifinals in 5 games. The key for the Celtics in this series will be the play of Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass. Miami lacks the interior defenders to deal with this duo but Bass and Garnett are more of jump shooters than post players at this point in their careers. They will get their shots and if they can knock a good percentage of them down, it will open up things for Allen and Piece. If they are unable to, the Celtics will be in trouble. In the end this series will be decided by the play of Wade and LeBron. If they can continually get to the rim for easy shots and free throws as they did the last three games of the Pacers series, Miami will win. Although Boston does not have the perimeter defenders to lock either of them down, they have terrific team defense that is, at times, impenetrable. However, I believe that the combination of Wade and LeBron will be too much for the Celtics to handle.
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder
Many people seem to be jumping on the Spurs bandwagon and proclaiming them as the team to beat. The Spurs are without a doubt the most complete team in the NBA, they go 11 deep with quality players up and down their bench. With Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker they have a trio of players who have been their before and know what it takes to win a championship. Although the Spurs are thought of as an old team, Tony Parker is still only 29 and they get great contributions from 24 year old Danny Green, 20 year old Kawhi Leonard, and 27 year old Tiago Splitter. However, I am not completely sold on the Spurs. They did have the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but they had the best record in the Western Conference last year as well and lost in the first round to the Memphis Grizzlies. I also do not put much stock into regular season records, especially in this shortened season where teams had to play a lot of games in very few days. In these playoffs the Spurs are 8-0, but they have not beaten a real quality contender yet. The Utah Jazz are an upstart team that snuck into the playoffs on the last day of the season. They are not yet ready to seriously contend for a title and the Spurs dispatched of them easily. The Spurs then swept the Clippers in the second round. I think the Clippers are a quality team that, if completely healthy, would have given the Spurs more trouble. However Blake Griffin was battling a sprained knee, Chris Paul had hip and groin injuries, and Caron Butler a fractured wrist. Although the Spurs have played nearly flawless basketball and don’t seem to have any noticeable weaknesses, I do think the Thunder present them with some challenges. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are good enough defenders to potentially slow down Tim Duncan. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook present the Spurs with challenges on the defensive end and the Thunder can counter Manu Ginobili with James Harden off the bench. This will be an extremely tight series but it will come down to two things: Russell Westbrook and the Spurs role players. If Russell Westbrook plays smart and is hitting that midrange jumper, the Thunder are very tough to beat. However, he also has the ability to shoot them out of games by continuing to take bad shots. It is very important for the Thunder that Westbrook plays well. For the Spurs, they need their role players to continue to knock down open shots. Danny Green, Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson, and Matt Bonner all shoot well from the outside and will get open looks. If they can continue to shoot the ball as well as they have this postseason, the Spurs will win this series. However, I am going against the popular opinion here and taking the Thunder.
This all comes down to how healthy Derrick Rose is.
If he is able to play at all, I don’t give the 76ers a chance. However, if Rose
misses a game or two, it could make this series more interesting. The 76ers
still lack a premier scorer and the best one they have might be 6th
man Lou Williams.
My Prediction: Bulls in 5
(2)
Miami Heat vs. (7) New York Knicks
The Knicks have the type of firepower with Carmelo
Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and J.R. Smith to play with anyone. When they are
all hitting their shots and Tyson Chandler and Iman Shumpurt are playing
stellar D, the Knicks are dangerous. However, they are too inconsistent to
threaten Miami over a 7 game series.
My Prediction: Miami in 5
(3)
Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Orlando Magic
This would be a great matchup… if the Magic still
had Dwight Howard. However, with no Howard, the Magic have no chance.
My Prediction: Indiana in 4
(4)
Boston Celtics vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks
Although the Hawks have home court advantage in this
series, I still give the Celtics the advantage. However, if Paul Pierce and Ray
Allen are limited, it could make this series a lot more interesting. The Hawks
seem to be in the 4 or 5 seed every year, but have never made a legit playoff
run, and I don’t see that starting this year.
My Prediction: Celtics in 6
Western
Conference
(1)
San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Utah Jazz
This is a young Jazz team who could be a legitimate threat
is they add a wing scorer to compliment Gordon Hayward. However, the Spurs were
humiliated by the Grizzlies in last year’s playoffs and will not let that
happen again. The Jazz also don’t have anyone to slow down Tony Parker, as
Devin Harris has never been known for his defense.
My Prediction: Spurs in 4
(2)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
The Thunder have a very tough 1st round
matchup in the defending champs but as long as James Harden is okay after
taking that brutal elbow from Metta World War Peace then I see the
Thunder advancing. However, if Dirk Nowitzki catches fire like he did in last
year’s playoffs, he is simply unstoppable.
My Prediction: Thunder in 6
(3)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
I think the Nuggets are a very dangerous team right
now. They have a budding superstar in Ty Lawson to go with one of the deepest
teams in the league. However, I do not think they will have an answer for
Andrew Bynum. Javale McGee is not strong enough and Kenneth Faried is not tall
enough.
My Prediction: Lakers in 6
(4)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
This is the best first round matchup in the
playoffs. The Grizzlies can seemingly matchup against any team. They have big
men who can score and defend (Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and the vastly
underrated Marreese Speights), wing players who can score and defend (Rudy Gay,
OJ Mayo, and Tony Allen) and a steady point guard (Mike Conley Jr.). For the
Clippers, Blake Griffin can dunk with the best of them but if the game is on
the line, can he make a free throw? Griffin shot just 52% from the free throw
line this year. Despite Chris Paul’s brilliance I don’t know if he will have
enough help to win this series.
This is not a column about the 10 best players of
the 2000’s. Rather, it is an article about the picks that were the best value.
Obviously Dwight Howard is a better player than Paul Millsap, but Howard was a
number 1 pick, so he is expected to be great. Meanwhile, Millsap was drafted in
the second round, 47th overall, so the fact that he has become such
an impact player makes him a better value than Howard. A few things went into
my analysis of these players; the number the player was drafted, who else was
taken in the draft they were in, and obviously, the effect they have had on the
NBA thus far, whether it be All-Star appearances, All-NBA teams, or NBA
championships. So, without further ado, here are the 10 Best (Value) Picks in
the NBA since 2000.
10.
David Lee: 1st Round, 30th overall (2005)
Drafted by the New York
Knicks, David Lee was an impact player early on in his career, averaging a
double-double in just his second year in the league despite starting just 12
games. With career averages of 14.3 points and 9.6 rebounds Lee has vastly out-produced
the five players taken directly before him, who were all PF/C’s, the same position
as Lee (Johan Petro, Jason Maxiell, Linas Kleiza, Ian Mahinmi, and Wayne
Simien). Lee made his first All-Star game in 2010, becoming the first Knick to
make an All-Star team since Allen Houston in 2001. This season Lee is averaging
20.1 points and 9.6 rebound for the Golden State Warriors.
9.
Paul Millsap: 2nd Round, 47th overall (2006)
Although Millsap just became a full-time starter
last season he has been productive during his time in the NBA. In his first
year in the league, he led all rookies in double-doubles and made the
All-Rookie second team. Last season he averaged 17.3 points and 7.6 rebounds
for the Utah Jazz. He followed that up this year by averaging 16.6 points and
8.8 rebounds while leading a young Jazz team to the NBA Playoffs in the Western
Conference.
8.
Carlos Boozer: 2nd round, 34th overall (2002)
Although Boozer has been thought of as a bit of a disappointment
during his time in Chicago, he has had a nice career. Boozer has averaged less
than 15 points per game only once in his career (during his rookie season he
averaged 10.0 points per game). Along with career averages of 17.3 points and
10.1 rebounds, Boozer is a two time All-Star and made the All-NBA third team in
2008. Other than Boozer, nobody outside of the top 10 of the 2002 draft has
made an All-Star team.
7.
Monta Ellis: 2nd round, 40th overall (2005)
Taken 10 picks after David Lee, Monta Ellis is known
as an electric scorer who has been stuck on a perennially bad team. With a
career average of 19.4 points per game, Ellis sports the highest career average
for anyone who has never been selected to an All-Star team. This is the third
consecutive year that Ellis has averaged at least 20 points and 5 assists a
game.
6.
Marc Gasol: 2nd round, 48th overall (2007)
Of the last 22 picks of the 2007 draft, 11 never
even made it the NBA. Gasol (part of those last 22 picks) in the meantime has
become one of the best centers in the league. He made the All-Rookie Second
Team in 2009 and made his first All-Star game appearance this season. He is
only the third player from the draft of 2007 to make an All-Star team, joining
Kevin Durant and Al Horford, who were taken 2nd and 3rd
respectively. Gasol also helped lead the 8th seeded Memphis
Grizzlies to an upset of the San Antonio Spurs in last year’s playoffs and
averaged 15.0 points and 11.1 rebounds over the course of the playoff run.
5.
Michael Redd: 2nd Round, 43rd overall (2000)
Known as a sharpshooter and dynamic scorer during
his prime, Redd is perhaps the best player from the 2000 NBA draft. Only two
other players from the 2000 draft even made an All-Star team (Kenyon Martin and
Jamaal Maglorie). Along with one All-Star appearance Redd was an All-NBA Third
Team selection in 2004. He has averaged over 20 points per game six times in
his career including a career high 26.7 points in 2007. Redd also holds the
record for most 3-point field goals in one quarter (8).
4.
Rajon Rondo: 1st Round, 21st overall (2006)
Living in a region where the Celtics are rooted for religiously
has made me despise them. Rajon Rondo (and his jumper) may be the most heated
debate I have with any Celtics fan. However, in this case, I am actually going
to talk about how great a player Rondo has been. Thanks to Brandon Roy and his
knees, Rondo is arguably the best player taken in the 2006 draft. Other than
Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, Rondo is the only player in the draft to make an
All-Star team. Aldridge and Roy were taken 2nd and 6th
respectively. Rondo is a three time All-Star as well as a three time
All-Defensive Team selection (first-team twice, second-team once). Rondo also
won an NBA championship in 2008 with the Celtics. He is one of only 4 players
in NBA history to have at least 15 points, 15 rebounds, and 15 assists in a
game, joining Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, and Jason Kidd. However, he
still has no jumper and it remains to be seen how he will fare without three
future hall-of-famers by his side. Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
3.
Zach Randolph: 1st round, 19th overall (2001)
Although 19th overall doesn’t sound like
a low pick, Randolph was the 11th PF/C taken in the draft. Notable
names such as Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, DeSagana Diop, Vladimir Radmanovic, Troy
Murphy Steven Hunter, Kirk Haston, Michael Bradley, and Jason Collins were
taken before Randolph. Although he has been known to be a bit moody and
potentially problematic, Randolph’s numbers speak for themselves. He has
averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds over a season five times in his
career and boasts career averages of 17.6 points and 9.2 rebounds. He was the
NBA’s Most Improved Player in 2004 and was named to the All NBA Third Team in
2011.
2.
Gilbert Arenas: 2nd round, 30th overall (2001)
Taken in the same draft
as Randolph, “Agent Zero” was known as one of the most enigmatic figures in
league history. He has career averages of 21.2 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.0
rebounds per game. Arenas is a three time All-Star as well as a three time
All-NBA selection. He is also one of only 20 players in NBA history to have
scored 60 or more points in a game. His career can be best summed up by the
fact that he holds the Washington Wizards franchise record for both most
turnovers in a game, as well as most points in a game. He also holds the unofficial
NBA record for most guns brought into a locker room.
1.
Tony Parker: 1st round, 28th overall (2001)
Apparently 2001 was the year of the sleeper as
Randolph, Arenas, and Parker all come from the same draft. Parker however is
the most accomplished of them all. A three-time NBA Champion and one-time NBA Finals
MVP, Parker starred as the point guard during the San Antonio Spurs dynasty. With
career averages of 16.9 points and 5.9 assists Parker has been producing for
many years, although this one may be his best yet, as ESPN analyst Skip Bayless
named him his NBA MVP (although, to be fair, Bayless often makes choices just
to be different from the common opinion). Great value picks such as Parker are
the reason the Spurs have been able to win 4 NBA Titles in the past 13 seasons.
Special
Mention: Isaiah Thomas: 2nd round, 60th overall (2011)
The jury is still out on last season’s draft class
as many of them have not had enough time to make an impact. However, I believe
that Thomas deserves to be mentioned because he was the very last pick of the
draft and has already turned into a very good player for the Sacramento Kings. The
feisty point guard is currently averaging 11.5 points and 4.0 assists per game
and ranks in the top 10 among rookies in 8 different categories.
Should this have been discussed earlier? Yes. Is this kind of ridiculous to talk about now? Yes. Are we going to talk about it anyways? Yes.
All this debate was started recently when Shaquille O'Neal spoke with Vibe Magazine and said, "Steve Nash is my boy, but I don’t see how the f**k he got it twice. I was taught never to complain because you can’t beat the system. People know who the real dominant guy was. But Steve Nash, I don’t want to say it because you might print it and it might cause problems. I don’t believe he beat me out twice.”
Everyone agrees that Shaq is a better player than Nash, that is not what is up for debate. Rather, did Nash deserve the two MVP awards he was given. The first season Steve Nash won the award was the 2004-2005 season. During this season he averaged 15.5 points and 11.5 assist. The assist numbers are very impressive. Guess who was second in assist that year. Did you say Jason Kidd? Or maybe Stephon Marbury? If you did, you're wrong. The player second in assist that year was Brevin Night of the Bobcats and he averaged 9 assist. 2.5 fewer than Nash. So if the MVP award was based only on assist than Nash deserved it with no doubt. However, we all know, that is not how it works. During that year Allen Iverson scored 30.7ppg, 7.9apg and 4.0rpg and was second in the league in steals with 2.4 per game. In that same season Kevin Garnett averaged 22.2ppg, led the league with 13.5rpg, and also had 5.7apg. Just looking at the numbers each player put up it seems that Nash did not deserve the award. However, how the team performs is always added into the equation when the league announces its MVP. The Phoenix Suns led the league with 62 wins and also led the league in scoring with an incredible 110.4ppg. That being said, the 76ers finished with 43 wins and the 7th seed in the east. The Timberwolves finished with 44 wins and missed the playoffs. When adding in the teams success it definitely gives a boost to Nash's resume, but I still believe Iverson or Garnett would have been the more deserving MVP.
The next year (2005-2006) Nash also won the MVP. That year he put up 18.8ppg and 10.5 assist. While his points increased, his assist total dropped. These are still great numbers however this is the same year that Kobe Bryant went on a scoring tear. He averaged 35.4 points per game to go along with 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assist per game. Allen Iverson also improved upon his scoring numbers from the previous years dropping 33ppg and 7.4apg. Again we must look at the team records during the season to help pick the MVP. Phoenix finished with 54 wins and grabbed the 2 seed in the Western conference as they finished 9 games behind the Spurs. The 76ers had 38 wins and failed to make the playoffs. The Lakers took the 7th seed as they finished with 54 wins, only 9 fewer than the suns. Even with the team records weighed into the making of the MVP decision it seems as though Kobe Bryant made a very strong case to be the MVP in the 2006 season.
Does Shaq have a point? Is Steve Nash undeserving of the two MVP awards that he won? While Nash was a great player those two years, many other players had seemingly better statistical years. If I had to vote, I would most likely not have put Steve Nash's name down on the ballet. But then again... I don't get to vote.
